Water Yield Projections

 

Authors

  • Mazdak Arabi – Colorado State University
  • Jorge Ramirez  – Colorado State University
  • Thomas C. Brown – USDA Forest Service

Purpose

Projections of water yield during the 21st century can be used to determine water supply sustainability indicators such as water supply scarcity, vulnerability, reliability, and resiliency; water import per capita, reservoir storage. It showed that, in the absence of adaptation, serious water shortages are likely in some regions of the United States. Comparison of projected demands with projected future supplies indicates where and when adaptations to changing conditions would be needed.

Download Data
Projected water Yield

Description

We estimate water yield using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model at each 1/8º by 1/8º (about 12 km by 12 km) grid cell across the conterminous United States. The VIC model is a semi-distributed, macro-scale, grid-based hydrological model that solves the vertical energy and water balances in each grid cell at a daily time step. Water yield as used here is the sum of surface runoff and base flow. Calibration of the VIC model was accomplished using the historical streamflow records of over 2,000 basins. Climatic forcings required to run the VIC model for the U.S. for the historical (1950-2010) period (precipitation, Tmin and Tmax, and wind speed) and other model inputs (soil properties, vegetation characteristics, and snow albedo data) were obtained from the Surface Water Modeling Group at the University of Washington (http://www.hydro.washington.edu/Lettenmaier/Data/gridded/). Downscaled climatic forcings used to run the VIC model for future years (2011-2100) were obtained for CMIP5-based futures. All VIC runs were performed at the daily time scale and grid cell spatial scale. Results were aggregated to the monthly time step and the basin spatial scale.

 

Attributes

Climate Model Used

  • BCC-CSM1.1 (BCC)
  • CanESM2 (CAN)
  • CSIRO-Mk3.6.0 (CSIRO)
  • GFDL-ESM2M (GFDL)
  • IPSL-CM5A-LR (IPSL)
  • MIROC-ESM (MIROC)
  • MPI-ESM-LR (MPI)

 

Analysis Time Periods

  • Past (1986-2010)
  • Near Future (2021-2045)
  • Mid Future (2046-2070)
  • Far Future (2071-2095)
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