A1-1: A multi-scale, multi-model dynamical-probabilistic approach to quantifying vulnerability, resiliency and adaptability of US urban water systems to climatic and socio-economic variability

Project A1-1

Project Team: Jorge Ramirez, PI – Colorado State University

                        Thomas C. Brown – U.S. Forest Service

                        Mazdak Arabi – Colorado State University

Project Overview

We will enhance the approach of Foti et al. (2014) to characterize distributions of water yield, water supply, and water demand in terms of spatially and temporally variable and mutually interacting probability distribution functions that will be used to assess water scarcity, water supply vulnerability, and water supply resiliency and capacity for adaptation. Water yield will be determined by coupling an ensemble of downscaled climatic projections from CMIP5 global climate models to a land surface eco-hydrologic model accounting for both surface and ground water processes (e.g., the Variable Infiltration Capacity model – VIC model), which will itself be enhanced to allow for climatically dependent and eco-hydrological optimal vegetation responses (e.g., Quebbeman and Ramirez, 2005). The fully integrated model will be implemented for the entire contiguous US at spatial scales ranging from 10 by 10 km to continental scales, and at temporal scales ranging from daily to monthly to annual over the 21^st century. Water supply will be determined using a detailed water allocation model (e.g., WEAP, MODSIM).